Confronting the Colonies (46 page)

10.
Jones and Stone, ‘Britain and the Arabian Gulf', p. 3; Ladwig, Walter, ‘Supporting allies in counterinsurgency: Britain and the Dhofar rebellion',
Small Wars and Insurgencies
, 19/1, (2008), p. 64; Mockaitis,
British Counterinsurgency
, p. 75; Hughes, ‘A “model campaign” reappraised', p. 277; Fain, W. Taylor,
American Ascendance and British Retreat in the Persian Gulf Region
, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008, p. 11.

11.
Jones and Stone, ‘Britain and the Arabian Gulf'.

12.
‘The Outlook for Oman', 1 March 1972, JIC(A)(72)11, CAB186/11; Phythian, Mark,
The Politics of British Arms Sales since 1964
, Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2000, p. 240.

13.
Ladwig, ‘Supporting allies in counterinsurgency', p. 66.

14.
Ladwig, ‘Supporting allies in counterinsurgency', p. 67; Hughes, ‘A “model campaign” reappraised', p. 281.

15.
Peterson, John,
Oman's Insurgencies: The Sultanate's Struggle for Supremacy
, London: SAQI, 2007, p. 479.

16.
Mockaitis,
British Counterinsurgency
, pp. 10–11; Peterson,
Oman's Insurgencies
, pp. 479–86; Dorril, Stephen,
MI6: 50 Years of Special Operations
, London: Fourth Estate, 2000, p. 734.

17.
Herman, Michael,
Intelligence Power in Peace and War
, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, p. 272; Herman, Michael, ‘Intelligence warning and the occupation of the Falklands', in Danchev, A. (ed.),
International Perspectives on the Falklands Conflict
, London: Macmillan, 1992, p. 159.

18.
Ash, W., (Deputy Secretary of the JIC) to the New Zealand High Commission, 22 December 1969, ‘UK Interdepartmental Intelligence Structure', CAB163/151.

19.
Cradock, Percy,
Know Your Enemy: How the Joint Intelligence Committee Saw the World
, London: John Murray, 2002, p. 266.

20.
O'Halpin, Eunan, ‘White, Sir Dick Goldsmith (1906–1993)',
Oxford Dictionary of National Biography
, Oxford University Press, 2004,
www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/53440
; Private information.

21.
Ash, W., (Deputy Secretary of the JIC) to the New Zealand High Commission, 22 December 1969, ‘UK Interdepartmental Intelligence Structure', CAB163/151; Herman,
Intelligence Power
, p. 307; Davies, Philip,
Intelligence and Government in Britain and the United States, Vol. 2, Evolution of the U.K. Intelligence Community
, California: Praeger, 2013, p. 38

22.
Gittings, John, ‘Sir Percy Cradock Obituary',
The Guardian
, 1 February 2010,
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/01/sir-percy-cradock-obituary
.

23.
Cradock,
Know Your Enemy
, p. 267.

24.
‘UK Interdepartmental Intelligence Structure, Appendix A: Composition and Functions', Ash, W., (JIC Deputy Secretary) to New Zealand High Commission, 22 December 1969, CAB163/151; Private information.

25.
Marshall, Alex, ‘Imperial nostalgia, the liberal lie, and the perils of postmodern counterinsurgency',
Small Wars and Insurgencies
, 21/2, (2010), pp. 233–58.

26.
‘The Case for an Improved Intelligence Organisation in the Persian Gulf', British Residency Bahrain, 21 March 1965, attached to letter from British Residency, Bahrain to JIC secretariat, 22 March 1965, CAB163/116; Cabinet Office, ‘Notes on Central Intelligence Machinery Division of Cabinet Office Records and other Intelligence-related Cabinet Office Records', (London: Crown, 2010) p. 13.

27.
‘JIC Minutes', 20 May 1971, JIC(A)(71)20th Meeting, CAB185/6.

28.
‘JIC Minutes', 15 July 1971, JIC(A)(71)27th Meeting, CAB185/7; See for example, JIC(A)(71)44th Meeting, 18 November 1971, CAB185/7.

29.
‘JIC Minutes', JIC(A)(70)6th Meeting, 5 February 1970, CAB185/5.

30.
Allen, Calvin and Rigsbee, W. Lynn,
Oman under Qaboos: From Coup to Constitution, 1970–1996
, London: Frank Cass, 2000, p. 91.

31.
Dorril,
MI6
, p. 734; Allen and Rigsbee,
Oman under Qaboos
, p. 91.

32.
Pimlott, John, ‘The British army and the Dhofar campaign 1970–75', in Pimlott, J. and Beckett, I. (eds.),
Armed Forces and Modern Counter-Insurgency
, London: Croom Helm, 1985, pp. 30–1; Ladwig, ‘Supporting allies in counterinsurgency', pp. 69–70; Weir, M. (British Residency) to Crawford, D. (Consul-General, Muscat), 7 February 1970, FCO8/1415.

33.
Hughes, ‘A “model campaign” reappraised', p. 292.

34.
Crawford, S. to McCarthy, D., 28 January 1970, FCO8/1415.

35.
‘Sultanate of Muscat and Oman: The Military and Political Situation in Dhofar in the Shorter Term', 17 April 1970, JIC(A)(70)6, CAB186/5.

36.
‘JIC Minutes', JIC(A)(71)27th Meeting, 15 July 1971, CAB185/7.

37.
‘Directive to Defence Attaché Muscat', Chiefs of Staff Secretary to Chiefs of Staff, 4 December 1973, DEFE11/763; See for example dispatches from the Defence Attaché to the Chiefs of Staff secretariat in January 1974, DEFE11/653.

38.
Defence Attaché to Chiefs of Staff secretariat, 1 June 1974, DEFE11/737; MoD to Defence Attaché, 28 June 1974, DEFE11/737; Defence Attaché to MoD, 1 July 1974, DEFE11/737.

39.
Ladwig, ‘Supporting allies in counterinsurgency', p. 74; Mockaitis,
British Counterinsurgency
, Newsinger, J.,
British Counterinsurgency: From Palestine to Northern Ireland
, Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002, p. 144; ‘SAS in Dhofar', Acland, A. (cc Crawford, S.), 1 February 1971, FCO8/1688; ‘Operation Storm: “D” Squadron Final Report, 13th January–9th May 1971', 20 May 1971, FCO8/1689; ‘Sultanate of Oman', 4 May 1971, Hart, F. (British Residency, Bahrain), FCO8/1689.

40.
‘DIS Briefing Programme for Colonel J.B. Akehurst', 21 June 1974, DEFE11/737.

41.
‘Future United Kingdom Defence Activity in Oman: Note by the Secretary, Annexure C to Appendix 7 to Annex A: Progress on CSAF's Requests for Assistance Other than Loan Personnel', 21 December 1973, Chiefs of Staff46/73, DEFE11/763; ‘List of visitors', attached to letter from Defence Attaché to Chiefs of Staff Secretary, 17 February 1974, DEFE11/653; ‘Report on the Provision of British Service Assistance to Oman: report of the Defence Operational Planning Staff', 12 July 1974, DOP Note714/74(Revised Prelim Draft), DEFE11/737.

42.
Bennett, Huw, ‘From direct rule to motorman: adjusting British military strategy for Northern Ireland in 1972',
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism
, 33/6, (2010), p. 519.

43.
See O'Halpin, Eunan, ‘”A poor thing but our own”: The Joint Intelligence Committee and Ireland, 1965–72',
Intelligence and National Security
, 23/5, (2008), pp. 658–80.

44.
The JIC Watch Organisation was listed under ‘other JIC organisations' in discussions relating to the 1968 reforms. It was ‘manned on a twenty-four hour basis in order to look out for situations in the world threatening our national interests, including threats to NATO, so that the intelligence community can be given advance warning. It maintains a close link with the current intelligence assessment organisation and all departments of the JIC(A)'. It consisted of four or five retired military officers monitoring incoming signals traffic. By the early 1970s, however, the system had become somewhat fossilised within the Cabinet Office and took more the form of a sorting role than a warning role. Ash, W., (Deputy Secretary of the JIC) to the New Zealand High Commission, 22 December 1969, ‘UK Interdepartmental Intelligence Structure', CAB163/151.

45.
Heuer, Richard,
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
, Washington DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999, p. 15.

46.
‘Arrangement of the Security Threat Masirah as at 31st October 1967', 28 November 1967, JIG(Gulf)1/67, CAB163/73.

47.
‘Subversive Activity in the Persian Gulf, Draft JIC Report', 28 March 1968, 8/JIC/4082, CAB163/73; ‘Likely Developments in the Persian Gulf and their Probable Effects for British Interests', 7 June 1968, JIC(68)35, CAB158/70.

48.
Betts, Richard, ‘Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable',
World Politics
, 31/1, (1978), p. 64.

49.
‘Departmental Comments on JIC(68)30Draft—Subversive Activity in the Persian Gulf', 1 May 1968, CAB163/73.

50.
‘Likely Developments in the Persian Gulf and their Probable Effects for British Interests', 7 June 1968, JIC(68)35, CAB158/70.

51.
‘JIC Minutes', 6 November 1969, JIC(A)(69)45th Meeting, CAB185/9. The report was issued in April 1970.

52.
‘Note on “Situation in Dhofar” from Acland, A. to Arthur, G. (Political Resident, Persian Gulf)', 11 February 1970, FCO8/1415.

53.
‘Sultanate of Muscat and Oman: The Military and Political Situation in Dhofar in the Shorter term', 17 April 1970, JIC(A)(70)6, CAB186/5.

54.
‘JIC Minutes', 3 June 1971, JIC(A)(71)21st Meeting, CAB185/6. This was done in conjunction with a series of other actors including local intelligence bodies. The JIG(Gulf) for example, sent regular updates outlining incidents and trends to both the JIC in London and to the FCO Arabia Department. See for example papers held in FCO8/1415 ‘Rebellion in Dhofar Province', Jan–Dec 1970.

55.
DeVore, Marc, ‘The United Kingdom's last hot war of the Cold War: Oman, 1963–75',
Cold War History
, First Article, (2011), pp. 4, 21–2.

56.
‘Present and Likely Future Extent of Soviet Influence in Individual Middle Eastern and North African Countries', 7 June 1968, JIC(68)32, CAB158/70; ‘Future Soviet Policy in Persian Gulf', 16 March 1971, JIC(A)(71)7, CAB186/8.

57.
‘JIC Minutes', 19 February 1970, JIC(A)(70)8th Meeting, CAB185/3; ‘The Outlook for Oman', 1 March 1972, JIC(A)(72)11, CAB186/11.

58.
‘Likely Developments in the Persian Gulf and their Probable Effects for British Interests', 7 June 1968, JIC(68)35, CAB158/70.

59.
‘Future of the RAF Station at Salalah', 23 April 1968, Chiefs of Staff secretariat, cc to JIC secretariat, ‘Enclosure to CHIEFS OF STAFF1283/23/4/68: RAF Salalah', by Political Resident Persian Gulf, 5 April 1968, CAB163/116.

60.
‘Likely Developments in the Persian Gulf and their Probable Effects for British Interests', 7 June 1968, JIC(68)35, CAB158/70.

61.
Jones and Stone, ‘Britain and the Arabian Gulf', p. 3.

62.
‘JIC Minutes', 21 March 1969, JIC(A)(69)20th Meeting, CAB163/115.

63.
‘The Likely Effect of a Postponement of British Military Withdrawal on the Security Situation in the Gulf', 8 December 1970, JIC(A)(70)49, CAB186/6.

64.
‘Threat to the Withdrawal of British forces from the Gulf in the Remaining Part of 1971', 21 September 1971, JIC(A)(71)46, CAB186/9.

65.
‘JIC Minutes', 26 November 1970, JIC(A)(70)46th Meeting, CAB185/4.

66.
‘Threat to Areas where British Forces have Commitments other than Continental Europe', 10 April 1974, JIC(A)(74)18, CAB186/18; ‘The Prospects for the Persian Gulf and for Supplies of Gulf Oil', 25 November 1974, JIC(A)(74)21, CAB186/18.

67.
‘The Outlook for Oman', 1 March 1972, JIC(A)(72)11, CAB186/11.

68.
Hughes, ‘A “model campaign reappraised', pp. 296–7.

69.
‘Future Soviet Policy in Persian Gulf', 16 March 1971, JIC(A)(71)7, CAB186/8.

70.
‘Sultanate of Muscat and Oman: The Military and Political Situation in Dhofar in the Shorter Term', 17 April 1970, JIC(A)(70)6, CAB186/5; ‘Future Soviet Policy in Persian Gulf', 16 March 1971, JIC(A)(71)7, CAB186/8; ‘PDRY Support for PFLOAG', JIC(A)(71)(N)158, 3 September 1971, Document released through the Freedom of Information Act.

71.
Andrew, Christopher and Mitrokhin, Vasili,
The Mitrokhin Archive II: The KGB and the World
, London: Allen Lane, 2005, p. 214. From 1972 the KGB maintained close links with the PDRY intelligence service, providing training and cipher personnel, and from July 1973 a KGB liaison officer was stationed in Aden. In May 1974, the KGB and the PDRY intelligence
agency signed a secret agreement on collaboration in intelligence operations against the United States, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia. There were, however, tensions between the two intelligence agencies. p. 141, pp. 214–7.

72.
Hughes, ‘A “model campaign” reappraised', p. 296.

73.
DeVore, ‘The United Kingdom's last hot war', p. 4.

74.
‘PDRY Support for PFLOAG', 3 September 1971, JIC(A)(71)(N)158, Document released through the Freedom of Information Act; ‘Sultanate of Muscat and Oman: The Military and Political Situation in Dhofar in the Shorter Term', 17 April 1970, JIC(A)(70)6, CAB186/5; ‘The Threat to a British Withdrawal from the Gulf by the End of 1971, 16 July 1970, JIC(A) (70)(N)130, Document released through the Freedom of Information Act; Hughes, ‘A “model campaign” reappraised', p. 296.

75.
Hughes, ‘A “model campaign” reappraised', p. 296.

76.
New York Times
article clipping, 12 December 1967, sent from the UK Embassy, Washington to Aden Department, FCO, 12 December 1967, FCO8/366.

77.
‘Future of the RAF Station at Salalah', 23 April 1968, Chiefs of Staff secretariat, cc to JIC secretariat, ‘Enclosure to CHIEFS OF STAFF1283/23/4/68: RAF Salalah', by Political Resident Persian Gulf, 5 April 1968, CAB163/116; Balfour-Paul, H., (British Residency, Bahrain) to Gent, 23 March 1968, FCO8/366.