War: What is it good for? (75 page)

U.S.-Asia pivot: Clinton 2011.

Estimates of risk of Sino-American war:
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/the_future_of_war
. Pew poll:
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/692.pdf
. Feldman 2013 is a good analysis of U.S.-China relations.

AirSea Battle: Krepinevich 2010; van Tol et al. 2010, with debates at
http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2013/08/19/airsea-battle-vs-offshore-control-can-the-us-blockade-china
. U.S. cyberwar plans:
www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2013/jun/07/obama-cyber-directive-f-text
.

China's strategic options: Tellis and Tanner 2012; Bracken 2012, pp. 195–211.

Russia since 1989: M. Goldman 2008. Military modernization:
www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/30/us-russia-putin-navy-idUSBRE86T1D320120730
;
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/05/building_a_better_bear
. Declining revenues:
www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/overview
.

Shale revolution: M. Levi 2013. Third industrial revolution: Rifkin 2011.

Estimates of economic growth, 2010–60: OECD,
www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/lookingto2060.htm
; Congressional Budget Office,
www.cbo.gov/publications/43907
. Lower estimates:
www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2012/11/economic-outlook
; Pricewater-houseCoopers,
www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
;
Economist,
www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/06/daily-chart-0
.

Chinese and American military budgets:
http://milexdata.sipri.org
.

Global trends to 2030: National Intelligence Council 2012. Arc of instability: National Intelligence Council 2008.

Carbon dioxide levels:
http://co2now.org
. Possible consequences: L. Smith 2010;
www.sciencemag.org/site/special/climate2013/
.

Euphrates: “Less Fertile Crescent,”
Economist,
March 9, 2013, p. 42,
www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21573158-waters-babylon-are-running-dry-less-fertile-crescent
. Egypt and Ethiopia:
www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/10/us-ethiopia-egypt-nile-war-idUSBRE95911020130610
.

Mean temperatures, 2002–12: Hansen et al. 2013; “A Sensitive Matter,”
Economist,
March 30, 2013, pp. 77–79,
www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions
.

CIA climate change office closes:
http://eenews.net//files/10/67/43/f106743/public/Greenwire/2012/11/19/1
.

Number of nuclear warheads: Kristensen and Norris 2012, 2013. U.S. plutonium facility put on hold:
www.lasg.org/press/2013/NWMM_22Feb2013.html
. Ground-Based Mid-course Defense:
www.mda.mil/system/gmd.html
. Iron Dome:
http://nation.time.com/2012/11/19/iron-dome-a-missile-shield-that-works/#ixzz2Ci0JS7Us
.

I learned a great deal about the drone program from my visit to Creech Air Force Base, Nevada, on March 5, 2013. The PBS
Nova
television show “The Rise of the Drones” (
www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/military/rise-of-the-drones.html
) gives a good account of its history, and a pair of papers (Byman 2013, Cronin 2013) in
Foreign Affairs
92.4 (July/August 2013) present the main issues in the public debate.

MQ-9 unit cost:
www.dod.mil/pubs/foi/logistics_material_readiness/acq_bud_fin/SARs/DEC%202011%20SAR/MQ-9%20UAS%20REAPER%20-%20SAR%20-%2031%20DEC%202011.pdf
. F-35 unit cost:
www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/feature/141238/**f_35-lot-5-unit-costs-exceed-$223m.html
.

Civilian casualties of drones:
www.propublica.org/article/everything-we-know-so-far-about-drone-strikes
, with links to competing estimates. Casualties in Pakistan:
http://natsec.newamerica.net/drones/pakistan/analysis
;
www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2013/07/22/get-the-data-the-pakistan-governments-secret-document/
.

Singer 2009 is an excellent introduction to robotic warfare. Official reports: Joint Forces Command 2003, U.S. Air Force 2009. Call for a moratorium: United Nations 2013;
www.hrw.org/news/2013/05/28/us-take-lead-against-lethal-robotic-weapons
. Campaign to Stop Killer Robots:
www.stopkillerrobots.org
. Most recent (November 2012) statement of U.S. policy on lethal drones:
www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/pdf/300009p.pdf
.

War in 2050: G. Friedman 2009.

Second Nuclear Age: Bracken 2012.

Social development index: I. Morris 2010, 2013.

Combination of technology and security perspectives: National Intelligence Council 2008, 2012; Schmidt and Cohen 2013.

Brains and the Singularity: Kurzweil 2005, 2013. Survey of predictions:
http://fora.tv/2012/10/14/Stuart_Armstrong_How_Were_Predicting_AI
. Human Brain Project:
www.humanbrainproject.eu
;
www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/05/neurologist-markam-human-brain/all/
.

Criticisms of Singularity theories: See particularly Morozov 2013. Kurzweil 2013, pp. 266–82, addresses some of the objections.

Berkeley movie experiment:
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110922121407.htm
, with footage at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsjDnYxJ0bo
. Berkeley speech experiment:
www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001251
. Rat telepathy:
www.nature.com/srep/2013/130228/srep01319/full/srep01319.html
, with discussion at
http://singularityhub.com/2013/03/11/brains-of-two-rats-linked-half-way-across-the-world/
.

Human superorganism: Robert Wright 2000.

Competitions within our bodies: Ridley 1996, pp. 11–34, has a clear account.

Policy debate: Brooks et al. 2013; Posen 2013.

Pax Technologica: Khanna and Khanna 2012.

Computerization and wealth inequality:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/rise-of-the-robots/?_r=0
; Cowen 2013.

Nexus
and
Crux:
Naam 2013a, 2013 b.

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