War: What is it good for? (74 page)

Game theory: Poundstone 1992 engagingly describes the field's history, calling the classic technical exposition, von Neumann and Morgenstern's daunting
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
(1944), “one of the most influential and least-read books of the twentieth century” (p. 41). Schelling 1960 may be the best point of entry for readers interested in military applications.

Evolutionarily stable strategies: Maynard Smith 1982 is the best account, and Dawkins 1989, pp. 68–87, has an extremely clear summary. Violent outliers among humans: Raine 2013.

Psychological bases of human violence: Anderson and Bushman 2002.

Importance of numbers in chimpanzee attacks: Wilson et al. 2012.

Social animals: De Waal and Tyack 2003. Game theory has a lot to say on the evolution of sociability (Axelrod 1984 is a classic), and Shultz et al. 2011 discuss the evolution of primate sociality. Cooperation and competition: Bowles and Gintis 2010.

Ants: Hölldobler and Wilson 1990; D. Gordon 2000. Superorganisms: Hölldobler and Wilson 2008. Army ants: Gotwald 1995. Ant communication: D. Gordon 2010.

Territoriality: Wrangham and Peterson 1996.

Bonobo cannibalism: Fowler and Hohmann 2010.

Fossil evidence for evolution of modern apes: Klein 2009, pp. 112–26. The only chimpanzee fossils yet found come from the drier climate of Kenya, at the extreme eastern end of their range (McBrearty and Jablonski 2005).

Formation of Congo River: J. Thompson 2003, with Caswell et al. 2008, p. 11, on dating. Divergence of chimpanzee and bonobo DNA: Caswell et al. 2008. Congo River as an obstacle to gene flows: Eriksson et al. 2004.

Reasons for divergence of chimpanzee and bonobo diets: Wrangham and Peterson 1996, pp. 220–30; Potts 2004; Furuichi 2009; Hohmann et al. 2010. Sapolsky 2006 provides more evidence on how quickly changes in the environment can affect primate violence, this time among baboons.

Chimpanzee rape: There is a long-running debate between evolutionists and feminists over whether rape is an adaptation that allows otherwise uncompetitive males to spread their genes or a tool of male oppression; the answer, not surprisingly, seems to be that it is both at once (Muller and Wrangham 2009).

Chimpanzee sperm competition: Diamond 1992, pp. 72–75. Boesch 2009 emphasizes the methods female chimpanzees have developed to exploit male sexuality and aggression
for their own reproductive ends. Gorillas: Fossey 1983; Harcourt and Stewart 2007. Sperm competition theory: Birkhead 2002.

Minimal sexual violence among bonobos: Hohmann and Fruth 2003. Importance of female bonobo coalitions: Furuichi 2011. Importance of mothers in regulating bonobo sexual competition: Surbeck et al. 2011.

Prince Chim: Yerkes 1925. Yerkes's famous Primate Laboratory was based at Yale University, but Chim died before Yerkes moved there from Harvard in 1925.

Human evolution generally: Klein 2009 is strong on the details; Stringer and Andrews 2012 is beautifully illustrated. Our knowledge of
Sahelanthropus, Ardipithecus,
and
Australopithecus
(not to mention several newly identified genera) is improving rapidly: See White et al. 2009; Dirks et al. 2012; Haile-Selassie et al. 2012; Berger et al. 2013.
Australopithecus
brain:
http://meeting.physanth.org/program/2013/session16/bienvenu-2013-the-endocast-of-sahelanthropus-tchadensis-the-earliest-known-hominid-7-ma-chad.html
.

Teeth, tubers, and roots: Lee-Thorp et al. 2012. Bipedalism: Klein 2009, pp. 271–78.

Expensive brain tissue: Aiello and Wheeler 1995; Fish and Lockwood 2003. Brain growth in the last three million years: McHenry and Coffing 2000. Tool use among apes: Roffman et al. 2012; Sanz et al. 2013.

Early
Homo:
Aiello and Antón 2012.
Homo ergaster/erectus:
Antón 2003. Climate and evolution of
H. ergaster:
Magill et al. 2012. Brains: Rightmire 2004.

Early use of fire: Berna et al. 2012.

Cooking and pair-bonding: Wrangham 2009. Bonobo monkey hunts: Surbeck and Hohmann 2008.

On all matters (human) breast- and penis-related: Yalom 1998; Hickman 2012. Penis, testicle, and breast size: Diamond 1992, pp. 72–76.

Skeletal evidence of protohuman violence: Wu et al. 2011, with table S2 (available at
www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2011/11/14/1117113108.DCSupplemental/pnas.201117113SI.pdf#nameddest=ST2
), containing fifty-three examples; Walker 2001.

Patterns of violence among Stone Age humans: Keeley 1996; Gat 2006. Similarities to chimpanzee violence: Wrangham and Glowacki 2012. Similarities between human and chimpanzee gangs of young adult males: Wrangham and Wilson 2004. Chimpanzees are usually hostile toward members of other communities, but de Waal 1989 describes ape strategies for resolving conflicts without violence. Chimpanzee mortality rates: Hill et al. 2001; M. Wilson 2013. Males and violence: Ghiglieri 1999.

Spread of protohumans out of Africa: Klein 2009, pp. 279–372, gives an exhaustive overview. Discovery of new species: Meyer et al. 2012. Heidelberg Man communication: Martinez et al. 2012. Stone spearheads: Wilkins et al. 2012.

Neanderthals: Mithen 2005. Stab wounds: Shanidar 3 and St. Césaire 1, mentioned in Walker 2001, p. 585. Stone weapons: Lazuén 2012. Bone breakage patterns: Berger and Trinkaus 1995. Cannibalism: Klein 2009, pp. 574–76.

The modern brain: J. Allen 2009; Pinker 1997.

The Ice Age and its end: N. Roberts 1998; Mithen 2003.

Evolution of fully modern humans: Klein 2009, pp. 615–751. Shea 2011 discusses variability and modernity in
Homo sapiens
behavior before fifty thousand years ago.

I explain my views on cultural evolution (this is the expression generally used in American English; in British English, social evolution is more common) and its relationship to biological evolution more fully in my book
The Measure of Civilization
(I. Morris 2013, pp. 6–24, 252–63). Whiten 2011 and Whiten et al. 2011, which I had not read when
I wrote
The Measure of Civilization,
are valuable analyses of how human culture evolves and its relationship to culture among other apes.

Chimpanzee culture: Wrangham 2006; Boesch 2012. Bonobo culture: Hohmann and Fruth 2003.

Fatal spear thrust 100,000 years ago (Skhul skeleton 9): Walker 2001, p. 585.

Evolution of diversity of human cultures: Foley and Mirazón Lahr 2011.

Neanderthal genome: Green et al. 2010. Denisovan DNA: Rasmussen et al. 2011. Neanderthal extinction: Finlayson 2010.

Chimpanzee stable dominance hierarchy: De Waal 1982.

Freddy, Oscar, and Scar:
Chimpanzee
(Disneynature 2012, directed by Alastair Fothergill and Mark Linfield).

Pacifist's Dilemma: Pinker 2011.

Game theory and 1950s–60s nuclear strategy: Poundstone 1992; Freedman 2003, pp. 165–78. John Nash: Nasar 1998.

NATO and Soviet war aims in the 1980s: Odom 1988; Heuser 1998.

“The Nylon War”: Riesman 1951.

The final stages of the Cold War remain controversial, but in addition to the sources cited for
Chapter 5
, I have found Gaidar 2007, Grachev 2008, and Sebestyen 2009 helpful for seeing the crisis from the Russian side.

7.
THE LAST BEST HOPE OF EARTH

Homicides in New York:
www.cnn.com/2012/11/28/justice/new-york-murder-free-day/index.html
. Chicago:
www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/28/chicago-homicide-rate-201_n_2569472.html
. San Bernardino: Friend 2013. Newtown:
www.nytimes.com/2012/12/16/nyregion/gunman-kills-20-children-at-school-in-connecticut-28-dead-in-all.html
. U.S. rates:
www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-january-june-2012
.

Global statistics for 2004: Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development,
www.genevadeclaration.org/fileadmin/docs/Global-Burden-of-Armed-Violence-f-report.pdf
. Global statistics for 2010: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/homicide.html
. Global rate of violent death for 2012: World Health Organization,
www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/violence/en/
Syrian civil war:
www.cnn.com/2013/01/02/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html
. Frequency of interstate wars: Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Peace Research Institute of Oslo,
www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_prio_armed_conflict_dataset/
. Downward trend in civil wars: Hegre 2013, drawing on Peace Research Institute of Oslo data.

Number of nuclear warheads: See Kristensen and Norris 2012a, 2012b. The best-known index of the risk of annihilation, the
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'
“Doomsday Clock” (
www.thebulletin.org/content/doomsday-clock/timeline
), is rather misleading: it is currently set at five minutes to midnight, closer to the apocalypse than it was during the Cuban missile crisis.

Nuclear weapons as career suicide: Panel discussion at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 5, 2013.

GDP per person: Maddison 2010. Figure 7.2 is based on these data, brought up to date with World Bank data (
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
) converted to Maddison's metric of 1990 Geary-Khamis international dollars.

Problems of the American globocop: Ikenberry 2011. Similarities (and differences) between the British and the American globocops: N. Ferguson 2003, 2004a.

First draft of 1992 Defense Planning Guidance:
www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb245/index.htm
.
New York Times
leak and reactions, March 8, 1992:
www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-calls-for-insuring-no-rivals-develop.html
.

American foreign relations since 1989: Herring 2011, pp. 899–964. United States and Europe: R. Kagan 2002.

EU and U.S. GDPs: Maddison 2010.

European integration: Gillingham 2003. Fiscal integration: H. James 2012. UBS report: Deo et al. 2011. On German policy,
The Economist's
special report on Germany (June 15, 2013) is excellent, as is the
Financial Times'
special report on the future of the European Union (May 15, 2013). The OECD's Economic Outlook Web page (
www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm
) is valuable for following events.

European demilitarization: Sheehan 2008. Common Security and Defence Policy: Deighton 2011;
http://eeas.europa.eu/cfsp/index_en.html
; and comments by Catherine Ashton at a lunch at Stanford University on May 7, 2013.

Belarus incident:
www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/europe/in-belarus-a-teddy-bear-airdrop-vexes-lukashenko.html?_r=1&ref=europe
.

Opinion poll in 2003: Sheehan 2008, p. xvi. Opinion poll in 2006:
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jun/15/usa.iran
.

European strategic realities: R. Kaplan 2012. U.S. pressure on Britain to remain in Europe:
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/barack-obama-piles-pressure-on-david-cameron-over-eu-exit-8458116.html
.

The Great Game: Hopkirk 1990 is a wonderful account.

Oil and southwest Asia: Yergin 1991.

Spending on oil in mid-1970s: Based on Yergin 1991, pp. 792–93.

United States and Iran: Milani 2011. Ayatollah Khomeini as Man of the Year:
Time,
January 7, 1980 (
www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2019712_2019694_2019594,00.html
).
Time
received more than fourteen thousand letters of complaint.

Bin Laden and al-Qaeda: L. Wright 2006 is excellent.

Boer War: Pakenham 1979 remains the best treatment. Iraq War: The literature is vast, but Ricks 2006 and 2009 are good introductions.

American torture: Greenberg 2005. Drone killings: Cavallaro et al. 2012;
http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/04/16843014-justice-department-memo-reveals-legal-case-for-drone-strikes-on-americans?lite
.

U.S. casualties in Iraq:
www.defense.gov/news/casualty/pdf
. Iraqi civilian casualties:
www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/ten-years/
. Costs of Boer War: Pakenham 1979, compared with British GDP from Maddison 2010.

Declining U.S. oil imports: U.S. Energy Information Administration,
www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm
. Imports peaked at 12.5 million barrels per day in 2005; the 1987 level was 6 million barrels.

Slowing down Iran's nuclear program: Sanger 2012, pp. 141–240,
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/11/19/stuxnets_secret_twin_iran_nukes_cyber_attack
. Iranian nuclear options: Bracken 2012, pp. 155–60.

End of big wars: Hammes 2006. Gray 2005 summarizes and criticizes the predictions.

Middle Eastern villages at Fort Irwin:
www.good.is/posts/picture-show-iraq-in-the-mojave/
.

American anxieties about Japanese economic growth: Vogel 1980.

Five-trillion-dollar trade through South China Sea: Luttwak 2012, p. 206.

Maoist economic disasters: Diktötter 2010; MacFarquhar and Schoenhals 2006.

Chinese economic growth and fragility: Fenby 2012; Beardson 2013; Shambaugh 2013. The detail about deforestation comes from Economy 2004, p. 64, and the estimates of growth by 2030 from Economy 2007.

China as a military rival to the United States: Out of a huge recent literature, I have found R. Kaplan 2012 and Luttwak 2012 particularly useful.

Peaceful Rise: Zheng 2005. Peaceful Development: Dai 2010.

Chinese strategic culture: Yan 2011; Ye 2010. Confucian politics: Jiang 2013.

Military spending, 1989–2011: Data from the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database,
http://milexdata.sipri.org
. Chinese armed forces: Department of Defense 2012, 2013.

China-Germany analogy: Luttwak 2012, pp. 56–67.

RAND war games: Shlapak et al. 2009.

The proceedings of the ASPI conference
(Global Forces 2011
) are available at
www.aspi.org.au/publications/publications_all.aspx
. Australian 2009 Defence White Paper:
www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/
. Reactions: Lyon and Davies 2009.