‘If we use sanctions they’ll really have to hurt. Cosmetic stuff will just feed into the South Africa-as-victim line that Mthwesa’s pushing, which will boost his position. Are we prepared to get really tough? And will it work even if we are? Frankly I think our friends in Beijing will happily take any exports from South Africa that we don’t want. We’d be handing Mthwesa something to hit us with in return for virtually zero impact on the ground.’
The shape of the arrangement being proposed by the Chinese, as far as Rollins was aware, was a restoration of the constitution with elections engineered so as to guarantee the ANC’s victory, after which China would use its diplomatic efforts to support the government in saying that the elections had been free and fair and the constitution had genuinely been restored. Tied up with that was a big Chinese trade and aid package and an understanding that if the west didn’t accept the arrangement and treated the ANC government as a pariah, China would make good any economic impact that resulted.
Within the ANC itself there were a number of groupings that opposed the Chinese arrangement. One faction didn’t want to see South Africa as a one-party state and would prefer to see the ANC contest elections even if they might lose them. This was the smallest group since most of the activists who thought like this had been driven out of the party over the last couple of years. A somewhat larger group feared that an arrangement with the Chinese would make President Mthwesa untouchable within the party. They wanted the ANC to rule but they didn’t want Mthwesa as president for life. And finally, the largest opposition group within the ANC had nothing against seeing the country become a one-party state, even if Mthwesa would be there for the next twenty years, but as a matter of pragmatism they didn’t want to see South Africa as some kind of pariah client state of China. They saw that as a poisoned chalice, and if that was the only alternative, they would take their chances with elections. They also saw a serious risk of significant disturbances if Mthwesa got his way. Rollins believed that if the ANC went for the China protector arrangement, with the ANC installed as the only party of government, and if KwaZulu Natal refused to accept it, then something approaching a civil war really could break out. It wasn’t clear that the top leadership of the ANC was prepared to fight such a conflict and this was likely the only thing still holding Mthwesa’s key supporters back from agreeing to the deal.
‘That’s our best lever,’ Rollins said. ‘Hollow gestures like cosmetic sanctions that actually strengthen Mthwesa’s position internally are not in our interest. Breaking off relations and taking ourselves out of the picture … if that’s even under consideration, that would be insane. Our best shot is to help strengthen the pragmatic group in the ANC and try to help them find a way out. A statement of concern in the Security Council will be fine. A vetoed resolution that amounts to an ultimatum would be a disaster. I would judge that it will strengthen Mthwesa enough for him to say yes to the Chinese.’
‘We need to get the Brits to hold back on this resolution,’ said Marion, who had already come to this conclusion after speaking to Rollins a couple of days earlier.
Havering laughed.
‘Doug, it’s poorly timed and it’s going to fail. If we’ve got people in the ANC who are on our side, like Tomasina says, we need to do what we can to strengthen their position. We need to be very firm that we’re not going to accept this situation but equally firm that we’re going to help South Africa find its own way out of it.’
‘Mthwesa’s never going to go for that,’ said Havering.
Ellman tried to suppress her frustration. The Chinese wanted time to craft a deal that enough of the ANC would accept. The US could use that same time to make sure that didn’t happen, working to craft a different deal. In the first instance it might take the shape of some kind of power-sharing arrangement with the opposition rather than elections, which would stand as an interim solution for a year or two. The US could offer a support package to sweeten it.
‘Doug,’ she said, ‘this isn’t for Mthwesa. This is to give something for the internal opposition within the ANC. This just needs a little patience. We need to give them a weapon and give them enough strength to use it.’
‘I don’t see us going to the president and saying the Brits are putting down this resolution and we’re going to abstain.’
‘I didn’t say we abstain. We need to get the Brits to hold fire. Bob, do you agree with that? Let’s try to get them to hold fire or put down something that’s less confrontational, and let’s work on an approach that might give the ANC opposition a way out.’
‘This president is not going to abstain on a resolution that is so clear cut about democracy,’ said Havering before Livingstone could reply.
‘Doug,’ said Marion in exasperation, ‘what I just said is we talk to the Brits and try to get them to hold off.’
‘The president won’t want you to do that. He’s expecting a resolution. And right now, he’s not in any mood to try to stop it. In fact, he wants it.’
Ellman frowned, trying to understand. ‘What are you telling me?’
‘He’s seen a paper.’
‘When?’
‘Rose asked for one.’
‘And you’ve already
given
him one?’
‘The president’s not happy with China right now. Do you understand, Marion? He’s not happy.’
‘And this is going to make them behave more congenially?’
‘Marion,’ said Livingstone, ‘there’s nothing to stop us putting down an alternative strategy.’
Nothing, thought Marion. And nothing to stop them trying to get the president to consider it after they had apparently given him an opposite strategy already.
There was silence on the phone. Ellman didn’t trust Doug Havering. He had obviously made up his mind that Bob Livingstone was a living husk and now it seemed that he was openly working around him with the White House. And Bob was just as much at fault for letting him.
‘Look,’ said Livingstone, ‘let’s find out how serious the Brits are about this and what they’re planning to do when the resolution fails. I’ll talk to London.’ He waited, listening to hear if anyone had anything else to say. ‘That’s a first step.’
‘Mr Secretary,’ said Marion, ‘can I have two minutes with you after this call?’
SHE WAITED UNTIL
the others called off.
‘Marion, go ahead,’ said Livingstone.
‘Bob, this isn’t going to work.’
‘What isn’t?’
‘This. This idea of supporting a resolution the Chinese are going to veto and then getting left in a position where we have to decide what to do when the Brits pull out of South Africa.’
Livingstone sighed. ‘Marion, I thought you feel strongly about the South Africa situation. I thought you wanted a resolution.’
‘I want a result. I want to see South Africa restored to democracy. If a resolution doesn’t get us there, forget it. We need to work with forces in the ANC regime who want a restoration. We need to strengthen them against Mthwesa. Does a resolution do that? It doesn’t. All it does is strengthen Mthwesa and make things worse. And it gets the Chinese pissed. We haven’t even got a statement from them over Fidelian yet. Do you think this is how we’re going to get it? We can’t keep slapping them in the face.’
Livingstone was silent for a moment.
‘Marion, it would be very bad if they didn’t say anything. The consensus at the National Security Council last week was that we would understand that as an admission of guilt on Zhang’s part.’
‘That would be a poor interpretation without something else to evidence it.’
‘I agree.’
‘Bob, is that what Opitz said to their finance minister? That we’d interpret it as an admission of guilt if they didn’t make a statement?’
‘I don’t know. I gave my input to the draft of what she was going to say. She was getting input from the White House as well. I wasn’t there when she spoke.’
‘Have you seen a transcript?’
‘No.’
‘You know, Bob, if they think that’s our attitude, they won’t do it.’
‘That’s what I told them. I said it to Susan. If there’s any way, shape or form they can interpret this request as a threat, you can forget it. Better not to speak to them at all.’
Marion frowned. The notion of getting a Chinese statement on Fidelian seemed a forlorn hope.
‘What’s happened to our two guys who were captured in Uganda?’ she asked suddenly. ‘Have you heard anything?’
‘No,’ said Livingstone. ‘What’s that got to do with this?’
‘Nothing. I just wondered.’ Marion paused. ‘You know, there’s a good chance Zhang won’t make a statement. Why should he? It makes him lose face. Effectively we’re asking him to say he miscalculated on this one. He would have to be extremely well disposed towards us to say that.’
‘He can find a form of words.’
‘He’d have to be extremely well disposed to say it in any form. If we want any chance of getting that statement, we need to tell the Chinese we’re not in support of the British resolution.’
‘I can’t do that.’
‘I’ll tell Liu.’
‘No! Marion, you will not speak to Liu about this. Not without the president’s approval.’
She didn’t reply.
‘Marion?’
‘I heard you, Bob.’
There was silence on the phone.
‘Marion, how important do you think this South Africa thing is to Zhang?’
She wasn’t sure. The first resolution condemning the suspension of the South African constitution had sailed through the Security Council. But it was no ultimatum, and carried no threat of sanctions. It was hard to imagine even such a gentle statement getting through today. ‘It’s becoming important, I think. Let me ask you a question, Bob. Do you really think Zhang miscalculated on Fidelian?’
‘Probably. I can’t see why he’d want to bring this down on himself.’
‘Bob, do you know Joel Ehrenreich?’
‘I know the name.’
‘He’s published a new book. You should read it.’
‘Send me a copy. Look, Marion, I’ve got to go. Is there anything else?’
‘Maybe we should work with the Chinese on this. Maybe we should offer to sit down, China, us, South Africa, a tripartite thing, and see if we can figure out a solution.’
‘That’s a not a bad idea. Unfortunately, I don’t think the president would agree.’
‘Then he’d be wrong. Bob, he’s wrong on this. If we back the British we gain nothing more than satisfying our own sense of moral righteousness. We give up the ability to exert any influence. We win a very minor battle and lose the war.’
Livingstone sighed. ‘Marion, I’m not saying you’re wrong, but for this president, this is a very easy decision. It’s a question of do you stand up for democracy or don’t you?’
‘I’m not saying we don’t stand up for democracy. Of course we do. But there are ways–’
‘And the president likes this one.’
‘Then the president’s wrong and you need to tell him.’
‘Marion,’ retorted Livingstone angrily, ‘I don’t just
tell
the president anything! I’m sorry. I’m not Gary Rose. I’m not John Oakley. In this administration that’s not how it works.’
37
FOUR DAYS AFTER
the initial report of the two US airmen being moved to Sudan, there was now near certainty that the men were there. The CIA had a sighting from a reliable source to add to the first source of information. Monitoring of Sudanese security communications had uncovered electronic traffic that, beneath the thin veil of a few childish code names, almost certainly referred to the Apache pilots.
There had been no statement from the Chinese government. A week had passed since Susan Opitz spoke with Finance Minister Bai.
The markets had paused, ready to jump but not sure in which direction. One day saw small rises and claims that the worst was over, the next day would see the rises reversed and claims that the worst was yet to come. Interbank lending activity was still virtually nonexistent as uncertainty continued over the viability of individual banks whose stock prices bounced around as one rumor replaced another. The Fed continued to provide liquidity, which was keeping the system afloat. Market analysts and media commentators seemed to be expecting something to come out of China, although no one knew that Opitz had made an approach. It was a temporary position. The logic of the panic was still there, if not the urgency. Until there was some clarification of how Fidelian had been allowed to fail two weeks previously, the logic would remain.
The National Security Council convened at 1pm. Opitz told the group that in her view there was potential for another significant fall across the markets, and it wouldn’t take much. In circumstances such as these, even an event that at first sight looked trivial could act as a trigger.
Gary Rose spoke briefly to inform the members of the council that the two surviving airmen, Captains Pete Dewy and Phil Montez, were believed to have been in Sudan for the past four days.
Bob Livingstone looked at the president in incredulity. Four days? Four days and he hadn’t been told? He opened his mouth to speak but stopped himself. He was aware of the way other people at the table were looking at him, the way you look at the chump who’s the last guy to find out what everyone already knows.
He hoped the president realized that balancing his demand for a Chinese statement on Fidelian with his agreement to give US support for a resolution on South Africa had just got a whole lot more complicated.
In Uganda itself, Mortlock Hale reported, an intense onslaught of drone attacks had accounted for up to an estimated hundred enemy casualties since the attack in which Jack Duffey and Harley Gauss had died. That assault seemed to have scattered a large number of LRA fighters and some had turned up in areas of lighter cover where drones could operate more effectively.
‘What about Gauss?’ demanded the president. ‘Did we find his body?’
‘No, sir.’
‘Any idea where it is?’
‘We won’t find it until we capture some of their guys and get the chance to question them. At the moment, given that we’re restricting ourselves to unmanned vehicles, that’s unlikely to happen.’
‘We’ve got to get that body,’ muttered the president.