Rumors of Glory (The System States Rebellion Book 1) (3 page)

“Well, why didn’t it warn us?”

“As I’m sure you remember, sir, Oracle is a prototype
system designed and programmed to look for patterns in massive amounts of data.
The last Oracle Sitrep did flag the fact that a courier, NC233 I believe, had
gone missing. Her last destination was Sparta. Interpreting that one data point
as a full-blown rebellion is beyond Oracle’s capabilities, sir. Until we got
the data chip from Hekla, there just wasn’t enough data for Oracle to reach any
kind of conclusion.”

The Chief of Staff thought about that before replying.
“Am I correct in thinking that there’s enough data now?”

“Yes, sir.”

“Good! I’m so relieved to hear it,” he said
sarcastically. “Maybe Oracle can come up with some useful conclusions and
recommendations now?”

Trojan nodded. “I’ll get my people on that immediately,
sir.”

“Light a fire under them, General. I don’t like having to
make excuses to the Council.”

Day 183/2539

When all senior members of the General Staff were seated,
Trojan cleared his throat and began to speak.

“The purpose of this meeting is to brief you on the Joint
Army Navy Planning Group’s Assessment of the Situation with regards to the
recent developments on Sparta. This Assessment was based on information
evaluated and developed by the group’s Oracle computer. Its designers claim
that Oracle can predict the behavior of large groups of individuals not just in
military strategic terms but also in economic, political and social terms. As
you’ll see from this briefing, Oracle’s conclusions are quite specific, and its
recommendations are equally so.

“I’ll start with some background information. We all know
that roughly 300 hours ago we received news that Sparta and 24 other planets
have apparently formed the System States Union in an attempt to secede from the
Federation of Planetary States. The identity of the other 24 planets is not
known with certainty at this time. However, Oracle has identified 24 planets as
likely candidates, based on the fact that three years ago 25 planets formed an
Economic Development and Trade Association headquartered on Sparta. Some of you
may remember hearing about that Association at the time it was announced. Since
then, this Association has made numerous petitions to the Federation Assembly
for action on grievances that include, but are not limited to, high Federation
taxes, effective monopoly on interstellar shipping by Earth-based shipping
companies, lack of accountability to local governments by Earth-based companies
and, finally, lack of action by the Federation to address the long term slump
in the interstellar economy. The Federation Council and Assembly have not
addressed any of these grievances. This has resulted not only in growing
dissatisfaction and even anger towards the Federation among planetary
populations but also has encouraged an additional 55 planets to join the Trade
Association, with 21 joining in just the last three months alone.”

Trojan paused. The sudden murmur from his audience told
him that THAT particular piece of information was a surprise to almost
everyone.

“With that background information out of the way, I will
now summarize Oracle’s Assessment of the Situation. Despite the fact that this
Union involves a small fraction of the total number of currently inhabited
planets, Oracle’s assessment is that this Union poses the most serious threat
to the stability and continued existence of the Federation that it has ever
faced.”

That caused another wave of whispering, and Trojan
noticed that both the Army and Navy Chiefs of Staff looked very unhappy.
I
hope they remember not to shoot the messenger,
he thought to himself as he
continued.

“The reason this threat is so serious is that Oracle has
estimated how quickly the Systems States Union will grow as more planets
withdraw from the Federation and join the SSU. If you’ll focus your attention
on the overhead display, you’ll see a projection of the size of the SSU based
on best case, worst case and most likely case scenarios.”

As soon as Trojan activated the viewscreen, the
whispering was replaced by shocked silence. Before anyone could respond, Trojan
continued.

“In all cases, you’ll notice that there is an upward
curve, which, even in the best case scenario, will include more than half of
all inhabited planets within 15 years.  Under the worst case, we’ll reach that
total within 8 years. Oracle predicts that the Federation as a political entity
will dissolve if more than half of its member planets join the SSU.”

Before Trojan could continue, the Navy’s Chief of Staff
spoke up.

“Quite frankly, I find those projections hard to believe,
but it seems to me that if we wait until one of these scenarios is confirmed,
it’ll be too late to do anything about it. Therefore I’m inclined to think we
should send a fleet of cruisers to Sparta as soon as possible, as a show of
force to nip this insanity in the bud! Would you agree with that, General
Trojan?”

Trojan paused before answering. “Well, Admiral Chenko, we
did ask Oracle to evaluate the effectiveness of a quickly organized military
response, and Oracle came to the conclusion that an expedition of that kind is
not only likely to fail to achieve its objective but is also likely to suffer
serious losses to ships and personnel. The reasons for that include the fact
that we know Sparta had already started to build up its own System Defense
Force. Given that, plus the fact that it would take a minimum of six months
just to gather enough ships together to even attempt a military intervention,
plus the travel time for those ships to get to Sparta, you’d then be looking at
a situation where the SSU will have had over a year to prepare its defenses for
exactly that kind of attack. Also keep in mind that the Navy’s cruisers were
designed mainly for anti-piracy and anti-smuggling roles, not for fleet vs
fleet actions or planetary bombardment. Sparta’s System Defense Force will have
what they call Missile Boats. They have armor composed of collapsed neutrons,
which our cruisers don’t have, and have traded the internal volume usually
devoted to hyperdrives for extra missile launchers and missile storage space.
There are also serious political implications if the Navy should launch a hasty
attack that fails. Oracle predicts that a failed attack would be seen by the
rest of the Federation as an SSU victory, which would encourage some planets to
join the SSU sooner than they otherwise would have.”

Admiral Chenko did not looked convinced. “Did Oracle have
any recommendations as to what we SHOULD do?”

Trojan nodded. “Yes, sir, it did. There are five
recommendations. The first is that all Army and Navy personnel who were not
recruited from within the Sol System be vetted for their commitment to the
Federation via verifier and those who fail the test be dismissed. This will
ensure that our remaining forces will not change sides, and we’ll then have a
smaller but far more reliable force structure. The second item is to deploy
those vetted forces among key planets that Oracle has identified, ones which
have not yet joined the SSU, as a way of discouraging those planets from doing
so. If we can keep these key planets within the Federation, then the SSU will
be significantly weaker in terms of industrial capacity, Gross Planetary
Product and strategic resources. In order to accomplish this goal, the third
item is a crash program of expansion for both the Army and the Navy. The Army
should be expanded to 250,000 men within three years, and to one million men,
along with 50,000 tanks, within six years. The Navy should immediately begin a
crash building program of warships, and troop transports of at least 300 meters
in diameter, with an ultimate goal of 1,000 warships and 500 troop transports.
Oracle recognized that this program would be fiscally impossible if attempted
with normal government funding procedures, and it has a solution to that
problem. This brings us to the fourth point. In the short term, the Federation
can order ships built in shipyards here on Earth, but the vast majority of the
ships needed to take down the SSU will have to be built elsewhere.  The
Franklin Tri-system has abundant raw materials and sufficient infrastructure
and population to be used as a dedicated shipbuilding center. In addition, its
location is ideal as a staging area for both troops and ships in preparation
for large- scale military operations against the SSU. The estimated cost of
acquiring control of the sources of raw materials, and setting up the necessary
mining, refining, manufacturing and assembly capacity using those raw materials
and local personnel, would be within the Federation’s economic and fiscal
capability. Once the infrastructure is in place, then the cost of building
those ships will essentially consist of the salaries of the people working on
them, plus the food, water, air and other consumables that they’ll need to do
that. The basic materials that the ships will be made from, for all intents and
purposes, will be free. 

“Oracle also recognized that an undertaking of this size,
with eventually hundreds of warships, thousands of interplanetary ships, and
millions of personnel scattered among hundreds of planets, all to be
coordinated with the time lag inherent in hyperjumps, will be beyond the
capability of humans to accomplish effectively without electronic help.
Therefore item five is a recommendation to finish Phase II of the Oracle Project
and build the full scale version, codenamed Majestic, which it is estimated
will be an order of magnitude more capable than the Oracle prototype.  Majestic
should be manufactured and assembled somewhere within the Franklin Tri-system
to minimize communication lag between the Field Commander and the Army and Navy
units attached to that Command.”

Trojan paused and looked at Admiral Chenko.

“Well,” said the Admiral, “I have to admit that the
notion of a 1,000-warship Fleet is very appealing, but I’m still concerned
about how soon we’ll be ready to begin operations under this scenario. When
does Oracle calculate that point, General?”

“The estimate is a year and a half to build the
infrastructure in the Franklin Tri-system, with the first ships completing
their construction cycle a year later, and a minimum of six more months to
build up a sizable attack force. So that means three years from the point when
the decision to go ahead is made. In the meantime, the Navy will be engaged
primarily in transporting newly raised Army units to planets that have not yet
joined the SSU to ensure that they remain in the Federation, using a steadily
growing fleet of warships and transports built first here on Earth, then later
in the Franklin Tri-system.”

Admiral Chenko nodded. “Yes, that makes sense. Oracle
seems to have thought of everything, which is to be expected.” Turning to the
Army Chief of Staff next to him, Chenko said, “Well, Frank, how’s a million men
under arms and 50,000 contra-gravity tanks sound to you?”

Five star general Frank Masterson smiled as he replied.
“I’ve always said the Army wasn’t big enough to keep the peace on so many
planets, so I’m glad to see that Oracle agrees with me. The question is whether
the politicians who run the Council will go along with it. THAT, I have doubts
about.” Turning to Trojan, Masterson said, “Okay, General, you’ve given us the
highlights. Now suppose you brief us on the details.”

Trojan nodded and manipulated the overhead screen
controls. “Certainly, sir. If you’ll turn your attention back to the overhead
screen, you’ll see…”

                                                   * * *

Several hours later General Trojan stood up as General
Masterson and Admiral Chenko emerged from the Council Chamber. Neither man was
smiling, which Trojan interpreted as bad news. As they approached, Trojan
saluted and was saluted in return. Masterson looked at Chenko, who nodded.
Masterson then turned back to Trojan and began to speak.

“Well, the Council took it better than I expected but not
as well as we had hoped.  They’re not convinced that the Union will experience
runaway growth. Therefore Oracle’s million man Army and thousand ship Fleet
seems to them excessive and blatant empire building. That’s a direct quote by
the way. However, they DID agree that Army and Navy personnel should be vetted
for loyalty using verifiers, so that’s been approved. They’ve also agreed to
expand recruiting quotas to compensate for those personnel who are dismissed as
a result of the vetting. The Navy also got ad hoc funding for another 20
cruisers and 10 troop transports, and the Army got additional funding for
another 40 battalions of mobile infantry. In other words, about 2% of what
Oracle says we’ll need. In the meantime, the council wants an envoy and three
cruisers sent to Sparta to negotiate some kind of a compromise that stops short
of outright secession from the Federation. The three cruisers are intended to
be a show of force that will intimidate the rebels. Personally, I think the
whole thing’s a waste of time, but then again I’m only a five star general, so
what do I know?”

He paused, and Trojan took the opportunity to ask, “What
about Majestic, General? Did they approve that?”

“R&D, yes. Manufacture and assembly, no. And the
R&D budget is a quarter of what we requested, so the technology won’t be
available as quickly as we had hoped for. But if they ever decide to build it,
we’ll know how. Let’s hope it’s not too late by then. So for now we keep our
ears to the ground and wait to see how this situation develops. Your planning
group will have plenty of time to tweak Oracle’s scenarios. If Oracle develops
any new insights, Admiral Chenko and I want to hear about them, understood?”

“Yes, sir. I understand perfectly.”

“Good. Then you’re dismissed General Trojan.”