With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change (37 page)

I. THE PIONEERS

The journal Ambio had a special issue on Svante Arrhenius and his legacy in 1997 (vol. 26, no i). I wrote about him in New Scientist in "Land of the Midnight Sums," 25 January 2003. Other sources include Gale E. Christianson's book Greenhouse: The Zoo-Year Story of Global Warming (Constable, 1999), which is also good on Callendar and Keeling. Many useful obituaries of Keeling were posted on news Web sites following his death in June 2005-for instance in the Daily Telegraph (www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/o6/24/db2402 .xml). And a good personal description of his early work appears at: www.mlo .noaa.gov/HISTORY/PUBLISH/2oth%2oanniv/co2.htm.

2. TURNING UP THE HEAT

The British newspaper mentioned in the first paragraph is the Daily Mail. The column, by Melanie Phillips, "Global Warming Fraud," can be read at her Web site: www.melaniephillips.com/articles/archives/ooo255.html. Christianson covers much of the early history of researching greenhouse gases. Brindley's paper on the planet's radiation balance is in Nature, vol. 410, P. 355. See also: www .imperial.ac.uk/P2641.htm.

The definitive consensus overview of the science of climate change in 2001 is provided by the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (www.ipcc.ch), which will be superseded during 2007 by the Fourth Assessment. However, the Fourth Assessment is already out of date. It only accepted evidence published in peer-reviewed literature by the summer of 2005-missing much new evidence of tipping points in the climate system.

Sherwood's 2005 research appears in Science (vol. 309, p. 1556). Parker's work on the urban heat island appears in Nature (vol. 432, p. 290). For references to Mann's work see the notes for chapter 33. Lassen and Friis-Christensen's original 1991 paper was in Science, vol. 254, p. 698. Lindzen is better known as a polemical and op-ed writer (for instance www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regI 5n2g .html), but he does have a track record of interesting research, such as "Does the Earth have an adaptive infrared iris?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 82, p. 417.

Pat Michaels is another media regular. His exposition of the paradigm problem appears in his diatribe on climate science Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (Cato Institute, 2004). For a vigorous attack on Michael Crichton's book State of Fear, read Jeremy Leggett in New Scientist, 5 March 2005. Oreskes's review of the scientific literature on climate change appeared in Science, vol. 306, p. 1686.

3. THE YEAR

I visited Honduras after Hurricane Mitch for the Red Cross. I wrote up my findings at www.redcross.int/EN/mag/magazine2001_2/heating.html. First reports on how exceptional 1998 was appeared the following year (see, for instance, www .sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/03/990304052546.htm). This was underlined in 2001 in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC.

4. THE ANTHROPOCENE

The proceedings of the Dahlem conference, at which I was introduced to many of the topics discussed here, are published as Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, Schellnhuber et al., eds. (Dahlem University Press, 2004). Crutzen discussed his work at length in his Nobel lecture (http://nobelprize.org/nobel_ prizes/chemistry/laureates/1995/crutzen-lecture.html). His discussion of the Anthropocene first appeared in print in 2000 in the newsletter of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), no. 41. I interviewed him for NewSci- entist: "High Flyer," 5 July 2003. Alley's report is Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (National Academies Press, 2002). Many of the remarks by Alley and Steffen come from my interviews with them in 2003 and 2005.

5. THE WATCHTOWER

The reportage follows a visit to Ny-Alesund in September 2005. Kim Holmen discusses its role as "a watchtower for human-induced climate change" in Polar Science in Tromso (Polarmiljosenteret, 2004). Kohler's mass balance study appears in Polar Research (vol. 22[2), p. 145). Dobson's story can be read at www.atm.ox .ac.uk/user/barnett/ozoneconference/dobson.htm. The Bear Island research appeared in Environmental Pollution, vol. 136, p. 419.

6. NINETY DEGREES NORTH

McCarthy revealed the ice-free North Pole at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ americas/888235.stm. Scamdos's work is being updated all the time and appears at: http://nsidc.org/. Polyakov's warm water pulse was reported in 2005 in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L176o5, DOI: 10.1029/2005GLo23740; available at www.agu.org. The statement by glaciologists on the transformed state of the Arctic appeared in Eos in August 2005 (vol. 86, p. 309).

7. ON THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

Hansen's "slippery slope" essay appears in Climate Change, vol. 68, p. 269. His "dangerous anthropogenic interference" remarks appeared in a lecture of that name to the University of Iowa, available, with much else of interest, from his Web site at: www.columbia.edu/-jehi/. Box's remarks, and those of Bromwich and Alley, are from interviews conducted in 2005. Zwally's research was published in 2002 in Science (vol. 297, p. 218). Data on movement of the Jakobshavn glacier appear in Nature (vol. 432, p. 6o8), and the new findings on Kangerdlugssuaq from measurements by Gordon Hamilton of the University of Maine on a Greenpeace cruise in 2005 can be read at: www.greenpeace.org.uk/climate/climate.cfm ?UCIDParam=20050721151314.

8. THE SHELF

The demise of Larsen B is described by Hulbe at http://web.pdx.edu/-chulbe/ science/Larsen/larsen2002.html. Alley discusses mechanisms at http://igloo.gsfc .nasa.gov/wais/pastmeetings/abstracts04/Alley.htm. I learned more from interviews with scientists at the British Antarctic Survey, and from Rignot and others at a conference on the Antarctic ice held at the Royal Society in London in late 2005 (www.royalsoc.ac.uk/news.asp?year=&id=3831).

9. THE MERCER LEGACY

I heard the story of Mercer from Thompson during interviews at his lab in 2005, and in correspondence with Hughes. Mercer's 1978 paper is in Nature (vol. 271, p. 321), and Hughes's 1981 "weak underbelly" paper was in theJournal of Glaciology, vol. 27, p. 518. Pine Island Bay was a major talking point at the Royal Society conference mentioned above, along with the state of the Totten and Cook glaciers. Vaughan's initial findings first emerged at http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ wais/pastmeetings/abstracts05/Vaughan.pdf. Davis's paper on the East Antarctic ice sheet appeared in Science (vol. 308, p. 1898).

io. RISING TIDES

The plight of the Carterets reached the world via the BBC. See: www.sidsnet .org/archive/climate-newswire/2000/oo93.html. Plans to abandon the islands and Tuvalu were reported by Reuters on 24 November 2005. I interviewed Teua- tabo for New Scientist in 2000 ("Turning Back the Tide," 12 February 2000). Hansen discussed the history of sea level rise in his December 2005 lecture: www.columbia.edu/-jehi/keeling-talk-and-slides.pdf.

I I. IN THE JUNGLE

Nepstad's drought experiment is discussed in Science, vol. 308, p. 346, and at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/AmazonDrought/. His plans for an experimental burn are discussed at www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-07/ whrc-whr07I905.php. The 2005 Amazon drought was widely reported, see http://news.bbc.co.uk/I/hi/world/americas/434431o.stm, for example. The Hadley Centre predictions appear in its report Stabilising Climate to Avoid Dangerous Climate Change, published in January 2005. The report by Gedney and Valdes appears in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 27, no. 19, p. 3053-

12. WILD FIRES OF BORNEO

I visited Palangkaraya for The Guardian newspaper shortly after the fires of 1997-98 and received firsthand reports from locals. See also reportage in Nature in 2004 (vol. 432, P. 144). Rieley's calculations of emissions from the fires appeared in Nature (420, p. 61). The U.S. research corroborating his findings appeared in Science (vol. 303, P. 73).

13. SINK TO SOURCE

Fan's explosive Science paper appeared in vol. 282, p. 442. Ciais's work for Car- boEurope appeared in Nature (vol. 437, P. 529), while Angert's paper appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), vol. 102 (31), p. Io823, and Zeng's findings were in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L227o9, DOI: Io.1o29/2005GLo246o7; available at www.agu.org. Lawrence's work on permafrost is publicized at: www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2oo5/permafrost.shtml and in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L244oI, DOI: Io.1o29/2005GLo23172; available at www.agu.org. Peter Cox presented his findings at the Dangerous Climate Change conference (see the notes for the Introduction, above) and published them in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 30, no. 19, p. 1479. I found Canadell's work at: www.esm.ucsb.edu/academics/courses/595PP-S/Readings/VulnerabGlo balC.pdf. Kirk's findings on British carbon appeared in Nature, vol. 437, P. 245.

14. THE DOOMSDAY DEVICE

My story on melting permafrost appeared in New Scientist on ii August 2005. Kirpotin's findings had yet to find a peer-reviewed publication in English at press time, but a revised version of his translated Russian paper appears at: www.mind fully.org/Air/2005/Palsas-Climate-Changesi iaugo5.htm. His findings were corroborated by Ted Schuur a year later in Nature (vol. 443, P. 71). I learned of Larry Smith's findings in e-mail interviews. The report suggesting that all plants make methane appeared in Nature, vol. 439, p. 187. I interviewed Christensen extensively during my visit to Stordalen in late 2005. His publications include Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31,Lo45o1,DOI:10.1029/2003GLo1868o;avail- able at www.agu.org.

15. THE ACID BATH

The Royal Society's study, "Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," appeared in June 2005, and can be found at: www.royalsoc .ac.uk. Turley presented her findings at the Dangerous Climate Change conference. Orr reported in Nature (vol. 437, p. 681). Falkowski's paper appeared in Science (vol. 290, p. 291).

16. THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Kennett and Stott's 1991 paper appeared in Nature vol. 353, P. 225. Dickens has published for instance at Geotimes, November 2004, p. 18. Alan Judd's seabed explorations were written up by Joanna Marchant in New Scientist on 2 December 2000. Norman Cherkis's paper was presented at the American Geophysical Union Spring Meeting 1997. Mienert discussed the Storegga slide in Marine and Petroleum Geology (vol. 22, p. ,) and in Oceanography (vol. 17, p. 16). Some other material comes from unpublished research he gave me during interviews. Nisbet discussed methane releases in a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Maths. Phys. Eng. Sc., vol. 360, no. 1793, p. 581. And David Archer produced an inventory of methane clathrates in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, vol. 227, p. 185.

17. WHAT'S WATTS?

Hansen's work on this is synthesized in his paper "The Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications," published in Science (vol. 308, p. 1431) and available at: www.columbia.edu/-jehi/hansen_imbalance.pdf. Read about the Global Albedo Project at: www-c4.ucsd.edu/gap/. Chapin's findings on Arctic albedo were published in Science (vol. 310, p. 627), while Betts's findings are in Nature, vol. 408, p. 187.

18. CLOUDS FROM BOTH SIDES

The 2004 Exeter meeting was a closed session of IPCC scientists. I was the only outsider attending. But most of the findings have since been made public. Stainforth's work appeared in Nature (vol. 433, P. 403), as did Murphy's (vol. 430, p. 768). Likewise, I was the only journalist attending sessions of the 2003 Dahlem Conference (see chapter 4), where Crutzen and Cox made their first calculations about the parasol effect, later written up by Cox in Nature (vol. 435, P. 1187). Wielicki responded in e-mail interviews and outlined some issues in Science (vol. 295, p. 841). Schwartz's remarks were made in an interview coinciding with the publication of his paper in theJournal of the Air and Waste Management Association (vol. 54, p. t). Hansen wrote about black soot in theJournal of Geophysical Research, vol. Ito, D18IO4.

19. A BILLION FIRES

The INDOEX Web site is at: www-indoex.ucsd.edu/. Remanathan and Crutzen discussed its findings in 2002 in Current Science, vol. 83, p. 947. Dale Kaiser's work on dimming appeared in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 29, no. 21, p. 2042. Hansen's ideas appear in Science, vol. 297, p. 2250.

20. HYDROXYL HOLIDAY

Prinn gave his warning in Science in 1995 (vol. 269, p. 187) and returned to the issue in the IGBP Newsletter No. 43 in 2000, and in Science in 2001 (vol. 292, p. 1882). Madronich raised his fears in 1992 in Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 23, p. 465. And also here, a year later: www.ciesin.org/docs/o11-457/01T- 457•html. I wrote a somewhat fanciful doomsday scenario for hydroxyl in a New Scientist supplement in April 2001. It can be found at www.gsenet.org/library/o4 chm/hydroxyl.php.

21. GOLDILOCKS AND THE THREE PLANETS

Read all about Snowball Earth in the book of that name by my former New Scientist colleague Gabrielle Walker (Bloomsbury, 2003). And more from Kirschvink at: http://pr.caltech.edu/media/Press_Releases/PR1272 3.html. Lovelock gave his Gaian interpretation of the planet's history in books such as The Ages of Gaia (W. W. Norton, 1995). His most recent book is The Revenge of Gaia (Allen Lane, 2006). I explored Retallack's ideas about "The Kingdoms of Gaia," in New Scientist 1o June 2001.

22. THE BIG FREEZE

The best read on the ice ages and Agassiz and the intriguing James Croll is in Frozen Earth by Doug Macdougall (University of California Press, 2004). Shackleton's groundbreaking paper appeared in 1976 in Science (vol. 194, p. 1121). I took Berrien Moore III's analysis of carbon movements from the Global Change Newsletter No. 40 (December 1999, p. 1).