Read What Technology Wants Online
Authors: Kevin Kelly
What Technology Wants (56 page)
144 “even
after
they read his paper”:
Walter Isaacson. (2007)
Einstein: His Life and Universe
. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 134.
after
they read his paper”:
Walter Isaacson. (2007)
Einstein: His Life and Universe
. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 134.
144 “ten years or more”:
Walter Isaacson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
Walter Isaacson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
144 “appear the most determined of all”:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1978) “Independent Discovery in Science and Technology: A Closer Look at the Poisson Distribution.”
Social Studies of Science
, 8 (4), p. 526.
Dean Keith Simonton. (1978) “Independent Discovery in Science and Technology: A Closer Look at the Poisson Distribution.”
Social Studies of Science
, 8 (4), p. 526.
144
K-9
and
Turner & Hooch:
Sean Dwyer. (2007) “When Movies Come in Pairs: Examples of Hollywood Deja Vu.” Film Junk.
http://www.filmjunk.com/2007/03/07/when-movies-come-in-pairs-examples-of-hollywood-deja-vu/
.
K-9
and
Turner & Hooch:
Sean Dwyer. (2007) “When Movies Come in Pairs: Examples of Hollywood Deja Vu.” Film Junk.
http://www.filmjunk.com/2007/03/07/when-movies-come-in-pairs-examples-of-hollywood-deja-vu/
.
145 a device called Toto:
Tad Friend. (1998, September 14) “Copy Cats.”
New Yorker
.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1998/09/14/1998_09_14_051_TNY_LIBRY_000016335
.
Tad Friend. (1998, September 14) “Copy Cats.”
New Yorker
.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1998/09/14/1998_09_14_051_TNY_LIBRY_000016335
.
146 simultaneous spontaneous creation:
(2009) “Harry Potter Influences and Analogues.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Harry_Potter_influences_and_analogues&oldid=330124521
.
(2009) “Harry Potter Influences and Analogues.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Harry_Potter_influences_and_analogues&oldid=330124521
.
148 Parallels in Blow Gun Culture:
Collage by the author from archival materials.
Collage by the author from archival materials.
149 the exquisite timing of when to blow:
Robert L. Rands and Caroll L. Riley. (1958) “Diffusion and Discontinuous Distribution.”
American Anthropologist
, 60 (2), p. 282.
Robert L. Rands and Caroll L. Riley. (1958) “Diffusion and Discontinuous Distribution.”
American Anthropologist
, 60 (2), p. 282.
149 what we call abacus:
John Howland Rowe. (1966) “Diffusionism and Archaeology.”
American Antiquity
, 31 (3), p. 335.
John Howland Rowe. (1966) “Diffusionism and Archaeology.”
American Antiquity
, 31 (3), p. 335.
149 “similar trajectories in various parts of the world”:
Laurie R. Godfrey and John R. Cole. (1979) “Biological Analogy, Diffusionism, and Archaeology.”
American Anthropologist,
New Series, 81 (1), p. 40.
Laurie R. Godfrey and John R. Cole. (1979) “Biological Analogy, Diffusionism, and Archaeology.”
American Anthropologist,
New Series, 81 (1), p. 40.
151 grains before root crops:
Neil Roberts. (1998)
The Holocene: An Environmental History.
Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, p. 136.
Neil Roberts. (1998)
The Holocene: An Environmental History.
Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, p. 136.
151 an independent parallel discovery:
John Troeng. (1993)
Worldwide Chronology of Fifty-three Innovations
. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International.
John Troeng. (1993)
Worldwide Chronology of Fifty-three Innovations
. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International.
151 help of a statistician:
Andrew Beyer. (2009) In discussion with the author.
Andrew Beyer. (2009) In discussion with the author.
152 “the telephone in the United States in 1876”:
Alfred L. Kroeber. (1948)
Anthropology
. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co., p. 364.
Alfred L. Kroeber. (1948)
Anthropology
. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co., p. 364.
152 simultaneous inventions in history:
Robert K. Merton. (1973)
The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations
. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, p. 371.
Robert K. Merton. (1973)
The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations
. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, p. 371.
153 are fueled by new technologies:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1979) “Multiple Discovery and Invention: Zeitgeist, Genius, or Chance?”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, 37 (9), p. 1614.
Dean Keith Simonton. (1979) “Multiple Discovery and Invention: Zeitgeist, Genius, or Chance?”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, 37 (9), p. 1614.
153 the then-obvious next step:
A. L. Kroeber. (1948)
Anthropology
. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co.
A. L. Kroeber. (1948)
Anthropology
. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co.
154 “a disadvantage when it comes to new ones”:
(2008, February 9) “Of Internet Cafés and Power Cuts.”
Economist
, 386 (8566).
8. Listen to the Technology(2008, February 9) “Of Internet Cafés and Power Cuts.”
Economist
, 386 (8566).
157 Super Sabre doing 1,215 kilometers per hour:
(2009) “Flight Airspeed Record.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Flight_airspeed_record&oldid=328492645
.
(2009) “Flight Airspeed Record.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Flight_airspeed_record&oldid=328492645
.
158 Speed Trend Curve:
Robert W. Prehoda. (1972) “Technological Forecasting and Space Exploration.”
An Introduction to Technological Forecasting
, ed. Joseph Paul Martino. London: Gordon and Breach, p. 43.
Robert W. Prehoda. (1972) “Technological Forecasting and Space Exploration.”
An Introduction to Technological Forecasting
, ed. Joseph Paul Martino. London: Gordon and Breach, p. 43.
158 to the Moon quite soon after that:
Damien Broderick. (2002)
The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies
. New York: Forge, p. 35.
Damien Broderick. (2002)
The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies
. New York: Forge, p. 35.
158 “Arthur C. Clarke had expected it to occur”:
Ibid.
Ibid.
159 start-up making the integrated chips:
John Markoff. (2005)
What the Dormouse Said: How the 60s Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer
. New York: Viking, p. 17.
John Markoff. (2005)
What the Dormouse Said: How the 60s Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer
. New York: Viking, p. 17.
160 Plotting Moore's Law:
Data from Gordon Moore. (1965) “The Future of Integrated Electronics.”
Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation,
ed. David C. Brock. Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 54.
https://www.chemheritage.org/pubs/moores_law/
; David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 70.
Data from Gordon Moore. (1965) “The Future of Integrated Electronics.”
Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation,
ed. David C. Brock. Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 54.
https://www.chemheritage.org/pubs/moores_law/
; David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 70.
160 they would also become better:
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 99.
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 99.
160 “drops as a result of the technology”:
Gordon E. Moore. (1995) “Lithography and the Future of Moore's Law.”
Proceedings of SPIE,
2437, p. 17.
Gordon E. Moore. (1995) “Lithography and the Future of Moore's Law.”
Proceedings of SPIE,
2437, p. 17.
161 “Moore's Law is really about economics”:
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation.
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation.
161 “to make it come to pass”:
Bob Schaller. (1996) “The Origin, Nature, and Implications of âMoore's Law.'”
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html
.
Bob Schaller. (1996) “The Origin, Nature, and Implications of âMoore's Law.'”
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html
.
161 what you're allowed to believe:
University Video Corporation. (1992)
How Things Really Work: Two Inventors on Innovation, Gordon Bell and Carver Mead.
Stanford: University Video Corporation.
University Video Corporation. (1992)
How Things Really Work: Two Inventors on Innovation, Gordon Bell and Carver Mead.
Stanford: University Video Corporation.
162 “it sort of drives itself”:
Bob Schaller. (1996) “The Origin, Nature, and Implications of âMoore's Law.'”
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html
.
Bob Schaller. (1996) “The Origin, Nature, and Implications of âMoore's Law.'”
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html
.
163 “while scaling of disk drives continues”:
Mark Kryder. (2009) In discussion with the author.
Mark Kryder. (2009) In discussion with the author.
163 “not identical as might be expected”:
Lawrence G. Roberts. (2007) “Internet Trends.”
http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm
.
Lawrence G. Roberts. (2007) “Internet Trends.”
http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm
.
163 “sequence of the physical DNA”:
Rob Carlson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
Rob Carlson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
164 Four Other Laws:
Data from National Renewable Energy Laboratory Energy Analysis Office. (2005) “Renewable Energy Cost Trends.” cost_curves_2005.ppt.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt
; Ed Grochowski. (2000) “IBM Areal Density Perspective: 43 Years of Technology Progress.”
http://www.pcguide.com/ref/hdd/histTrends-c.html
; Rob Carlson. (2009, September 9) “The Bio-Economist.”
Synthesis
.
http://www.synthesis.cc/2009/09/the-bio-economist.html
. Deloitte Center for the Edge. (2009) “The 2009 Shift Index: Measuring the Forces of Long-Term Change,” p. 29.
http://www.edgeperspectives.com/shiftindex.pdf
.
Data from National Renewable Energy Laboratory Energy Analysis Office. (2005) “Renewable Energy Cost Trends.” cost_curves_2005.ppt.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt
; Ed Grochowski. (2000) “IBM Areal Density Perspective: 43 Years of Technology Progress.”
http://www.pcguide.com/ref/hdd/histTrends-c.html
; Rob Carlson. (2009, September 9) “The Bio-Economist.”
Synthesis
.
http://www.synthesis.cc/2009/09/the-bio-economist.html
. Deloitte Center for the Edge. (2009) “The 2009 Shift Index: Measuring the Forces of Long-Term Change,” p. 29.
http://www.edgeperspectives.com/shiftindex.pdf
.
165 “operative even when people disbelieved it”:
Rob Carlson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
Rob Carlson. (2009) In discussion with the author.
165 more than an industry road map:
Ray Kurzweil. (2005)
The Singularity Is Near.
New York: Viking.
Ray Kurzweil. (2005)
The Singularity Is Near.
New York: Viking.
165 Kurzweil's Law:
Data from Ray Kurzweil. (2005) “Moore's Law: The Fifth Paradigm.” The Singularity Is Near (January 28, 2010).
http://singularity.com/charts/page67.html
.
Data from Ray Kurzweil. (2005) “Moore's Law: The Fifth Paradigm.” The Singularity Is Near (January 28, 2010).
http://singularity.com/charts/page67.html
.
167 Doubling Times:
Data from Ray Kurzweil. (2005)
The Singularity Is Near.
New York: Viking; Eric S. Lander, Lauren M. Linton, et al. (2001) “Initial Sequencing and Analysis of the Human Genome.”
Nature
, 409 (6822).
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11237011
; Rik Blok. (2009) “Trends in Computing.”
http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~rikblok/ComputingTrends/
; Lawrence G. Roberts. (2007) “Internet Trends.”
http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm
; Mark Kryder. (2009) In discussion with the author; Robert V. Steele. (2006) “Laser Marketplace 2006: Diode Doldrums.”
Laser Focus World
, 42 (2).
http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/248128
.
Data from Ray Kurzweil. (2005)
The Singularity Is Near.
New York: Viking; Eric S. Lander, Lauren M. Linton, et al. (2001) “Initial Sequencing and Analysis of the Human Genome.”
Nature
, 409 (6822).
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11237011
; Rik Blok. (2009) “Trends in Computing.”
http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~rikblok/ComputingTrends/
; Lawrence G. Roberts. (2007) “Internet Trends.”
http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm
; Mark Kryder. (2009) In discussion with the author; Robert V. Steele. (2006) “Laser Marketplace 2006: Diode Doldrums.”
Laser Focus World
, 42 (2).
http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/248128
.
169 which it passed in 1997:
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation.
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation.
169 The Continuum of Kryder's Law:
Data from Clayton Christensen. (1997)
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 10.
Data from Clayton Christensen. (1997)
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 10.
170 need to “listen to the technology”:
(2001) “An Interview with Carver Mead.”
American Spectator
, 34 (7).
http://laputan.blogspot.com/2003_09_21_laputan_archive.html
.
(2001) “An Interview with Carver Mead.”
American Spectator
, 34 (7).
http://laputan.blogspot.com/2003_09_21_laputan_archive.html
.
170 Compound
S
Curves:
Data from Clayton Christensen. (1997)
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail.
Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 40.
9. Choosing the InevitableS
Curves:
Data from Clayton Christensen. (1997)
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail.
Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 40.
176 First Glimpse of the Picture Phone:
AT&T archival photograph via “Showcasing Technology at the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair.”
http://www.westland.net/ny64fair/map-docs/technolog
y.htm.
AT&T archival photograph via “Showcasing Technology at the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair.”
http://www.westland.net/ny64fair/map-docs/technolog
y.htm.
177 everyone recognized the vision:
(2010) “Videophone.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Videophone&oldid=340721504
.
(2010) “Videophone.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Videophone&oldid=340721504
.
177 “self-sustaining, ineluctable flow”:
Langdon Winner. (1977)
Autonomous Technology: Technics-Out-of-Control as a Theme in Political Thought
. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 46.
Langdon Winner. (1977)
Autonomous Technology: Technics-Out-of-Control as a Theme in Political Thought
. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 46.
181 “much that can still be chosen”:
Ibid., p. 55.
Ibid., p. 55.
182 “moments in the progressions”:
Ibid., p. 71.
Ibid., p. 71.
182 The Triad of Biological Evolution:
Inspired by Stephen Jay Gould. (2002)
The Structure of Evolutionary Theory,
Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 1052; designed by the author.
Inspired by Stephen Jay Gould. (2002)
The Structure of Evolutionary Theory,
Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 1052; designed by the author.
183 The Triad of Technological Evolution:
Designed by the author.
Designed by the author.
184 North Korea at Night:
Paul Romer. (2009) “Rules Change: North vs. South Korea.” Charter Cities (January 28, 2010).
http://chartercities.org/blog/37/rules-change-north-vs-south-korea
.
Paul Romer. (2009) “Rules Change: North vs. South Korea.” Charter Cities (January 28, 2010).
http://chartercities.org/blog/37/rules-change-north-vs-south-korea
.
185 that is sparse and minimal:
Paul Romer. (2009) “Paul Romer's Radical Idea: Charter Cities.” TEDGlobal, Oxford.
Paul Romer. (2009) “Paul Romer's Radical Idea: Charter Cities.” TEDGlobal, Oxford.
185 a matter of what it is designed for:
Robert Wright. (2000)
Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny
. New York: Pantheon.
Robert Wright. (2000)
Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny
. New York: Pantheon.
187 technology is our “second self”:
Sherry Turkle. (1985)
The Second Self
. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Sherry Turkle. (1985)
The Second Self
. New York: Simon & Schuster.
188 “but we hope in technology”:
W. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves.
New York: Free Press, p. 246.
10. The Unabomber Was RightW. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves.
New York: Free Press, p. 246.
191 “tendency to make war impossible”:
Richard Rhodes. (1999)
Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World.
New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 66.
Richard Rhodes. (1999)
Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World.
New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 66.
191 “will be beyond computation”:
Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky. (1998)
The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation.
New York: Villard, p. 274.
Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky. (1998)
The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation.
New York: Villard, p. 274.
191 “war will become impossible”:
Ibid.
Ibid.
191 “a thousand world conventions”:
Ibid., p. 273.
Ibid., p. 273.
191 “it will make war impossible”:
Havelock Ellis. (1926)
Impressions and Comments: Second Series 1914-1920
. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Havelock Ellis. (1926)
Impressions and Comments: Second Series 1914-1920
. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
191 “it will make war ridiculous”:
Ivan Narodny. (1912) “Marconi's Plans for the World.”
Technical World Magazine
(October).
Ivan Narodny. (1912) “Marconi's Plans for the World.”
Technical World Magazine
(October).
191 “Good Will Toward Men a reality”:
Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky. (1998)
The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation.
New York: Villard, p. 105.
Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky. (1998)
The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation.
New York: Villard, p. 105.
192 “good will towards men”:
Janna Quitney Anderson. (2006) “Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast.” Elon University/Pew Internet Project.
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/1870.xhtml
.
Janna Quitney Anderson. (2006) “Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast.” Elon University/Pew Internet Project.
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/1870.xhtml
.
192 “will bring peace and harmony on Earth”:
Nikola Tesla. (1905) “The Transmission of Electrical Energy Without Wires as a Means for Furthering Peace.”
Electrical World and Engineer
.
http://www.tfcbooks.com/tesla/1905-01-07.htm
.
Nikola Tesla. (1905) “The Transmission of Electrical Energy Without Wires as a Means for Furthering Peace.”
Electrical World and Engineer
.
http://www.tfcbooks.com/tesla/1905-01-07.htm
.
192 “the unfettered movement of ideas”:
David Nye. (2006)
Technology Matters: Questions to Live
W
ith.
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 151.
David Nye. (2006)
Technology Matters: Questions to Live
W
ith.
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 151.
192 “dream of participatory democracy”:
Stephen Doheny-Farina. (1995) “The Glorious Revolution of 1971.”
CMC Magazine
, 2 (10).
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1995/oct/last.html
.
Stephen Doheny-Farina. (1995) “The Glorious Revolution of 1971.”
CMC Magazine
, 2 (10).
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1995/oct/last.html
.
192 “seen as a sacrament”:
Joel Garreau. (2009) In discussion with the author.
Joel Garreau. (2009) In discussion with the author.
192 “answers to solutions”:
W. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves
. New York: Free Press, p. 153.
W. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves
. New York: Free Press, p. 153.
192 die in automobile accidents:
M. Peden, R. Scurfield, et al. (2004) “World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention.” World Health Organization.
http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/world_report/en/index.html
.
M. Peden, R. Scurfield, et al. (2004) “World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention.” World Health Organization.
http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/world_report/en/index.html
.
192 kills more people than cancer:
Melonie Heron, Donna L. Hoyert, et al. (2006) “Deaths, Final Data for 2006.” National Vital Statistics Reports, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 57 (14).
Melonie Heron, Donna L. Hoyert, et al. (2006) “Deaths, Final Data for 2006.” National Vital Statistics Reports, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 57 (14).
193 “round of technological innovation?”:
Theodore Roszak. (1972) “White Bread and Technological Appendages: I.”
Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World
, ed. Richard Rhodes. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 308.
Theodore Roszak. (1972) “White Bread and Technological Appendages: I.”
Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World
, ed. Richard Rhodes. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 308.
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